Alex Ezat Parnia, President and CEO at Florida Coastal University
How the globe views higher education is changing; and quite fundamentally; not necessarily by what school has the prettiest campus, or where is the most inexpensive place for students to live. More than ever before in recorded history of global ed, an increasing number of people are intentionally choosing from among many options for an accredited degree while retaining their current geographic location.
This is not online learning as a pandemic-related emergency response; it is thoughtful learning. Students and families may be arriving at the same conclusion from different directions, but what they are all concluding is that there are other reputable locations than just the physical campus for receiving a world-class education.
The numbers behind the shift
It is important to take a moment to think about how much has changed since 2000. The online learning market has increased by 900%, or almost 10 times larger than it was 25 years ago; as such, it is the fastest-growing sector amongst all forms of education offered today. Over half (54%) of college students in the US take at least one online class versus 35% six years ago. Also, while there has been a slight decline in the percentage of all undergraduate students enrolled solely in distance education from 28% of all undergraduate students in 2024 to 2025, from 39% of all undergraduate students were enrolled solely in traditional face-to-face classes at that same time period; it should be noted that face-to-face class enrollment declined from 39% of all undergraduate students as well during the same period.
Finally, the vast majority of graduate students in the US (52%) now enroll solely in completely online degree programs and over 70% of all students rate their experience with online education as either equal to or better than the experience they would have had had they completed their degree in person. That change in perception is much more important than any sort of market projection or another statistic. Rather than fading away, the negative stigma once associated with having a degree from an online program has been replaced by a more positive and useful form of evidence, which demonstrates that well-designed online programs can produce educational outcomes that are on par with those produced by equivalent programs on campus. In addition, the level of credibility enjoyed by online degrees and the reputation of these institutions has grown tremendously because of the number of well-known organizations and governments around the world that now approve of online degrees.
What is driving the acceleration in 2026 specifically
There are a few key areas combined to create a different environment now from past surges in online enrollment.
One example being the uncertainty around visas. The pause on visa processing that occurred between May 27th and June 18th of 2025 affected 81% of all institutions in the USA and travel restrictions prevented many students on their way to study to arrive when they were usually expected. Of the institutions offering deferrals to newly admitted international students, 72% provided a deferral option for the Spring of 2026 and 56% for the Fall of 2026. In addition to the above, there were 37% of institutions who included options for flexibility with their enrollment, including allowing students to begin studying online or beginning later than originally intended.
The response to the crisis is becoming normal practice. Those international students who began their US based degree programs online as a result of visa complications and later finished their degree online will highlight that while the campus environment can be of great value, it is not irreplaceable. If the current degree of unpredictability remains, there may be even more international students who would want to look for alternate means of beginning their degree or completing their degrees.
Cost is the second factor driving the demand for online degrees. The traditional college education costs have continued to soar, so that the average cost of tuition and fees for a US four-year degree will reach approximately $38,270 in 2025. In addition, the total amount of student loan debt has surpassed $1.7 trillion dollars. Therefore, the demand for alternative, low-cost, digital options has increased significantly. Online degrees from accredited schools eliminate tuition-related costs entirely. Students do not incur any room or board costs. There are no expected travel expenses, as there are no flights. There are no international health insurance costs. There are no currency exchange costs associated with living expenses when studying abroad.
The third factor driving demand for online degrees is the growth of a micro-credential ecosystem that is emerging in parallel to degree programs. The estimated value of the global micro-credential course market will be approximately $5.5 billion to $6.7 billion in 2025 (and are anticipated to have a projected annual growth rate of approximately 10% to 16% for the following ten years). This trend will be especially evident in the areas of upskilling in technology, business and healthcare. Therefore, MOOC providers are increasingly partnering with companies and universities to deliver nano-degrees and stackable credentials on behalf of learners who wish to augment their formal degree with targeted job-ready skills.
What employers have come to accept
The move toward skills-based hiring practices and the effects of AI's antenna restructuring of entry-level positions have reduced the value placed on the prestige of having attended a college or university either online or on-campus. Employers are now placing more emphasis on demonstrated abilities, work experience portfolios, and actual skills, which online degrees can provide as much as campus degrees, and in some cases more efficiently than campus degrees can provide.
The popularity of online education has surpassed its initial pandemic binge, and is becoming an established and permanent global education trend. Employers who previously built their graduate recruitment banks primarily from specific college campuses are becoming less frequent. However, new employers who are creating employee skills-first evaluation systems continue to increase in numbers.
The geography of who benefits most
There is no equality in the movement towards borderless education; instead, it has done the most good for those whose finances made them least likely to have access to traditional international education systems. A typical middle-class student in Nigeria, Indonesia, or India can reach an American or European university curriculum at an extremely high price, as the model based around physical campuses does not fit with the financial model of borrowing money to attend university by potentially having to repay it in foreign currency. This would mean a person planning several years of study in advance (including the costs of tuition), has no certainty on their ability to get an appropriate visa to enter into the country of the university, and also runs an extremely high level of risk associated with their ability to repay a loan because the loan is denominated in rupees or nairas that must eventually be paid back in dollars, especially as the exchange rate fluctuates with inflation.
Additionally, the rapid growth of online learning options is evident in Asia, as the e-learning market in this region is expected to be worth approximately $83.8 billion (current value) in 2024 and approximately $219.9 billion (projected value) by 2033, which represents sustained double-digit growth on an annual basis. People who use their mobile devices (primarily in South and Southeast Asia) have developed patterns of learning where they access education through mobile devices or online rather than by attending a university or classroom setting.
Increased international collaboration has created access for students to obtain credentials from multiple institutions across country lines. These joint programs give students the opportunity to develop the skills necessary for success in the global labour market, which requires cross-cultural skills and an international perspective on business operations.
What the physical campus still does that online cannot
The areas of strength for campus-based education-such as laboratory access, clinical placements, peer networks developed through shared physical environments and cultural immersion through study abroad-are elements that cannot be reproduced virtually. For professions that depend on these elements to attain qualification, you cannot fully replace the physical campus and its unique contribution to the profession. For example, you cannot acquire a medical degree through distance learning, and an engineering programme that has both significant hands-on laboratory experience and significant associated physical facilities also requires the presence of both of these components within a physical environment.
What the campus can no longer exclusively fulfil is providing academic content, providing credible credentials and giving access to professional networks. All three have moved substantially, but meaningfully, to the digital environment.